Mortality rates among young adults in Eastern Europe have increased sharply over the past decade, even as global death rates continue to fall, according to the latest Global Burden of Disease report published in The Lancet on Sunday and presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin.

The report found that deaths linked to drug use, suicide, and war are driving the increase in the region. It also highlighted that natural disasters, such as earthquakes and extreme heat events, have contributed to rising mortality in Eastern Europe.

Between 2011 and 2023, deaths among 15- to 19-year-olds rose by 54 percent and among 20- to 24-year-olds by 40 percent. The data contrasts with the broader global trend, which shows declining mortality and longer life expectancy.

“The rise of depression and anxiety is very concerning,” said Chris Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington and coauthor of the study. “We hear a lot of debate as to what the root causes are, but we certainly need to pay attention to try to figure out what’s driving the rise.”

Mental health disorders growing

The report shows that mental health disorders have become a growing global concern. Worldwide rates of anxiety increased by 63 percent and depression by 26 percent from 2000 to 2023. In Central Europe, deaths related to mental and eating disorders have also risen significantly among teenagers.

Researchers point to social and economic instability, as well as the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, as contributing factors to deteriorating mental health.

Drug use and violence contributing

Drug use and interpersonal violence were also cited as major contributors to mortality among young people in Eastern Europe. In North and Latin America, similar trends were observed, with suicide, overdose, and alcohol consumption leading to higher global death rates between 2011 and 2023.

In sub-Saharan Africa, the report attributed rising deaths among youth to infectious diseases and unintentional injuries.

Broader trends in global health

Globally, the study found positive progress in public health over the long term. Between 1950 and 2023, overall mortality rates dropped by 67 percent, while life expectancy increased by more than 20 years. However, the report warns of an “emerging crisis” affecting teenagers and young adults in several regions, reversing decades of progress in some areas.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) — including heart disease, stroke, and diabetes — now account for nearly two-thirds of all deaths worldwide. The report identified a “rapid transition” toward NCDs in lower-middle and upper-middle income countries, driven by aging populations, persistent tobacco use, air pollution, and rising obesity rates.

“In many middle-income countries, we’re seeing lifestyle-related diseases overtake infectious diseases as the primary causes of death,” Murray said.

In Central Europe and North America, drug use disorders have become a growing component of these chronic disease trends. Diabetes and kidney disease have also contributed significantly to increased mortality in these regions.

Conflict and climate impacts

The report noted that conflict has “begun to shift from North Africa and the Middle East to Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia” due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, resulting in a rise in injury-related deaths. Palestine recorded the highest mortality rate due to conflict and terrorism in 2023.

Natural disasters global death rates also contributed to regional spikes in mortality. The 2023 earthquake in Turkey and the 2022–23 European heatwaves were cited as major events that caused a surge in injury-related deaths.

The researchers estimate that about half of all deaths and disabilities could be prevented by addressing common health risks such as high blood sugar, obesity, and poor diet. They urged governments to strengthen public health interventions, expand healthcare access, and implement policies that address the underlying socioeconomic factors.

“Targeted action can save millions of lives,” the report concluded, warning that without intervention, the upward trend in young adult mortality could continue in the coming years.